Tensions Increase Between China and Taiwan

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June 3, 2025 by Mercedes Kenitzer

In May 2024, Lai Ching-te was sworn in as the new president of Taiwan. Central to his campaign was rejecting any political claims to the island by mainland China (officially the People’s Republic of China or PRC) and establishing a fully independent Taiwan.¹ This position is in clear opposition to the PRC’s “One China” principle, which views Taiwan as a breakaway Chinese province to be brought back under control. In response, Chinese authorities declared Taiwan’s new president responsible for increasing tensions between the two governments, which have been engaged in a power struggle for nearly 100 years.² As tensions continue to rise, what actions, if any, should the United States take to protect Taiwan from Chinese control?

U.S.-Taiwan Relations

Currently, the United States maintains political connections with both China and Taiwan and has worked to maintain peace in the area while also providing support for the democratic government of Taiwan (officially the Republic of China or ROC). This position has historically required careful diplomacy because of the adversarial relationship between the PRC and ROC. The ROC once controlled all of China, but in 1949, ROC officials retreated to Taiwan after the PRC’s communist takeover of mainland China.³ The United States recognized the ROC as the Chinese government until 1978. That year, President Jimmy Carter identified the PRC as the lawful government of China and established formal diplomatic ties. The United States no longer acknowledged the ROC’s claim over China and adopted a “One China” policy where Taiwan is not considered an independent state. However, in 1979, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, promising support, including military action, to help the island maintain self-governance.⁴

In the last decade, the tensions between the PRC and ROC have escalated with calls for Taiwanese independence and military drills in China. At the same time, the United States has strengthened relations with Taiwan despite hostile responses from China.⁵ In 2016, President-Elect Donald Trump took a phone call from Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, who congratulated him on his election win; it was the first time a president or president-elect had spoken directly with a Taiwanese leader since 1979.⁶ Since then, both the Trump administration and former President Joe Biden’s administration have shifted direction from the decades of prior U.S.-Taiwan policy.⁷ Both presidents significantly increased military support for Taiwan, angering China and destabilizing the peace between China and Taiwan that previous U.S. officials worked hard to maintain.⁸

During the first Trump administration, two military sales worth over $1.7 billion provided Taiwan with advanced missiles, torpedoes, and parts for its aircraft and subsystems.⁹ The United States also increased naval activities and dispatched high-ranking officials to Taiwan in response to China’s increased military presence in the Taiwan Strait.¹⁰ Under the Biden administration in 2024, Congress passed an $8.12 billion aid package to Taiwan to counter Chinese military action.¹¹ A second package in September 2024 provided additional financial support from the Department of Defense to improve Taiwanese military education and training.¹²

What Do Americans Think?

Those who support U.S. aid to Taiwan see protecting its democracy as a critical move for Taiwan’s safety and U.S. security in the region. Overall, Americans hold a positive view of Taiwan across party lines. A 2024 poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that 62 percent of Americans see ties with Taiwan as strengthening national security and 59 percent support providing aid if China invades the island.¹³ However, a majority of Americans are opposed to sending U.S. troops to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion.¹⁴ Supporters also highlight that Chinese control of Taiwan would threaten our economic stability. Taiwan manufactures 44 percent of all advanced semiconductors used in American electronics; the United States makes none.¹⁵ China could limit sales to the United States and prices would skyrocket.

Opponents, meanwhile, want to adhere to the “One China” policy and refrain from U.S. involvement between China and Taiwan, believing the status quo should be maintained to prevent Chinese retaliation. China has consistently criticized U.S. involvement and warned of consequences if support continues. In response to the 2024 military packages for Taiwan, Mao Ning, a representative of the PRC, stressed that the U.S. decision to help arm Taiwan will only push the country toward the danger of military conflict and that China stands strong against Taiwan independence. Officially, China “strongly condemns” the sale and says it “will take resolute countermeasures and take all measures necessary to firmly defend national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.”¹⁶

What Will Happen Next?

The debate about the U.S. role in the conflict between Taiwan and China is one that has persisted through multiple presidential administrations. The United States simultaneously adheres to the “One China” policy and provides military aid to Taiwanese defense against PRC hostility through the Taiwan Relations Act. Overall, Americans support continued aid to Taiwan. However, tensions between the United States and China may shift as President Trump responds to the conflict. Already this year, President Trump has imposed tariffs on both countries and pressured Taiwan to increase its spending on American-made products.¹⁷ He has also pushed Taiwan to increase its own military budget.¹⁸ Though the United States has been one of Taiwan’s strongest supporters, there is uncertainty about whether President Trump would have the United States come to Taiwan’s aid if China invades.¹⁹

Discussion Questions

What benefits and consequences do you see for the United States if the Trump administration continues to provide Taiwan more military support?
Do you think President Trump’s actions on this issue will affect U.S. relations with countries other than China? Why or why not?
How do you think the Trump administration should handle the growing tensions between China and Taiwan?
How far should U.S. support for Taiwan go?

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Sources

Featured Image Credit: Stephen Lam / Reuters

[1] United States Institute of Peace: https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/06/taiwans-new-president-faces-tensions-china-and-domestic-division

[2] U.S. Congress: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12503/1

[3] U.S. Department of State: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/china-policy

[4] U.S. Congress: https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479/all-info#:~:text=Taiwan%20Relations%20Act%20%2D%20Declares%20it,other%20people%20of%20the%20Western

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